By Clickability · Originally published 29 September 2025
Original article and dated context
The federal government has posted its first budget deficit since returning to office, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers announcing a $10 billion shortfall for 2024–25. While this figure is far lower than the $27.9 billion deficit forecast earlier in the year, it comes at a time when the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) remains central to ongoing budget negotiations.
The government credits stronger wages and lower unemployment for the improved numbers, and says it remains committed to “responsible economic management.” However, much of the focus is on the NDIS—the largest single budget item—where spending growth continues to outpace forecasts.
[Clickability update, October 2026: The original description is unsupported as a budget ranking. Treasury’s 2024–25 final budget outcome announcement confirms the dated deficit result; it does not establish this claim about the NDIS.]
Treasury has confirmed it holds detailed modelling on how to rein in NDIS costs but has declined to release the documents, arguing disclosure could harm delicate negotiations with states and territories. This secrecy has raised questions about what reforms may be on the table.
[Clickability update, October 2026: The funding estimates and predicted numbers below belong to the original debate. For implementation, read current Thriving Kids rollout information rather than assuming this historical announcement describes services available locally today.]
Foundational Supports in the Spotlight
A key part of reform involves shifting people with mild to moderate disabilities, particularly children with autism, into new “foundational supports” programs outside the NDIS. The government’s first step in this direction is the $2 billion Thriving Kids initiative, aimed at building services for children with developmental needs. States, however, have criticised the federal government for not consulting them properly and for expecting them to match the funding.
Experts warn the funding announced so far is far short of what’s needed. The Grattan Institute estimates a robust foundational supports system could cost closer to $3 billion annually. Without this investment, around 165,000 children risk falling through the cracks.
Balancing Sustainability and Support
Labor insists it is committed to protecting the NDIS, but ministers acknowledge the scheme cannot continue to grow at its current rate of 22% per year. The government’s long-term target is to reduce NDIS growth to 4–5% annually. This will likely mean changes to eligibility over time, especially as new foundational programs are rolled out.
The debate highlights the challenge: maintaining the life-changing benefits of the NDIS while ensuring the scheme remains financially sustainable. For participants, families, and providers, the coming years will bring significant changes as governments seek to rebalance the system.
Clickability editorial update: October 2026
Separate the budget debate from your child’s support pathway
A national spending forecast does not tell you whether your child’s next appointment or NDIS plan will change. Start with the support currently in place and ask the relevant service about its arrangements. Keep any actual transition communication so you can distinguish a decision about your child from a policy headline.
For early childhood help, ask what is available locally, how to contact it and whether the existing practitioner can help with a handover. The Thriving Kids rollout is staged. Do not assume a historical estimate of the number of affected children is an instruction to stop your child’s current services.
Questions readers ask
Is the $10 billion deficit a current-year result?
It concerns the 2024–25 final budget outcome, announced in September 2025. Official guidance
Does this news article determine my child’s eligibility?
No. A budget announcement or forecast is not an individual NDIS access or plan decision.
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