Australia’s disability-service market: reading a historical snapshot

A Snapshot of the Disability Market in Australia

By Fran Connelley · Originally published 13 January 2016

A person typing on a laptop beside documents

Original article and dated context

Fran Connelley is a strategic marketing specialist and Director of FC Marketing. This article includes extracts from her new book, ‘How to Thrive under the NDIS: A Pathway to Sustainability for Service Providers’ available late February 2016. The book includes insights and experiences of 15 disability CEOs and thought‐leaders in Australia and the UK. To order a copy visit http://bit.ly/1POkfwH.

The truth is that there is no one disability market. The disability sector comprises several different markets that vary significantly in structure and maturity.

The vision impairment market differs from the hearing impairment market which differs from the supported accommodation market – and that’s just for starters.

There is no doubt that the NDIS is the ultimate market ‘disrupter’. The implications of the most significant reform in the history of Australian disability services cannot be underestimated.

Before we can consider how best to serve the needs of the many individuals and families affected by this reform, we need to start with the market.

[Clickability update, October 2026:

The figures below are historical, with different years and populations. ABS’s 2022 survey reports 5.5 million Australians with disability, or 21.4%. That is survey-year prevalence, not NDIS eligibility or demand for a particular service. Use NDIA quarterly reports for dated scheme measures.

]

The stats:

The NDIS will increase the number of people who receive support nationally from 220,000 to 460,000. Disability spending will increase nationally each year from over $7 billion to $22 billion by 2020.
18.5% of the population, or 4.2 million Australians have a disability.1
45% of Australians with a disability live in or near a state of poverty.2 This is more than double the OECD average of 22%.3
2.7 million Australians provide informal care to an older person or person with a disability, with 29% of these people identifying themselves as the primary carer.4
In 1993, the labour force participation rate for working-age people with disability (15 to 64 years) was 54.9%, and dropped slightly to 52.8% in 2012. During the same period, the participation rate for working-age people without disability increased from 76.9% to 82.5%.5
People with disability are twice as likely to be in the bottom 20% of gross household incomes.6
Nearly 40% of Australian non-profit organisations receive 75% or more of their total funding from government.7 (This average is much higher for disability organisations. Over the last two years alone I’ve worked with clients who receive 64%, 85%, 90% and 98% of their total revenue from government.)

Research by the National Disability Services (NDS), stated: ‘It would be counter-productive to drive out good not-for-profits if all they lack are resources and skills to market their services.’

The same report found that the current disability research base is fragmented and not fit for purpose. Other key findings included:8

In 2012–13, 312,539 people received funded services and the average expenditure on disability support services per organisation was $3.3 million.
There are 2,151 disability support organisations in Australia, with an average of 145 ‘service users’ and 27 paid full-time staff members per organisation.
A few organisations reported they were NDIS-ready on costing and pricing (20%) and marketing practice (21%). These were the two areas where the 424 providers surveyed were least prepared.
67% of organisations did not have the minimum recommended cash flow standard of three months or more spending reserves. 17% had a current debt-to-assets ratio of less than one.
70% of providers intend to increase the scale or range of services.
42% of small providers believe the risks of the NDIS outweigh the opportunities.

All the data points to increased consolidation, collaboration and partnerships within the sector. In any industry with rapidly increasing levels of concentration it’s simply common-sense to proactively seek out and build mutually beneficial alliances with local organisations that share your vision, mission and core values and that also, most importantly, serve the best interests of people with disabilities and their families.

Footnotes:

1. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers: Summary of findings. No. 4430.0, ABS, Canberra, 2012

2. PwC, ‘Disability expectations – Investing in a better life, a stronger Australia’, Canberra, 2011

3. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), ‘Sickness, Disability and Work: keeping on track in the economic downturn’, Background paper

4. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers: Summary of Findings. No. 4430.0, ABS, Canberra, 2012

5. Australian Bureau of Statistics, 4433.0.55.006, Disability and Labour Force Participation, 2012

6. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers, 2012

7. NFP Benchmark Survey Report, March 2015, Russell Kennedy Lawyers and Pitcher Partners

8. National Disability Services, State of the Disability Sector Report, 2014 & 2015

Clickability editorial update: October 2026

Match the population, period and service before sizing demand

Specify the geography and support you can deliver, then identify what a dataset actually counts. Distinguish people with disability from NDIS participants, service requests and funded purchases. Record the reference period and any limits before using a figure in a business plan.

Combine that evidence with accessible conversations about unmet needs and existing alternatives. Partnership can improve coverage, but concentration or growth is not automatically beneficial to participants. Governance guidance helps keep service quality and continuity central to operational decisions.

Ask what a proposed expansion changes for your support

If providers merge or collaborate, ask who remains responsible, what terms will change and how you can raise concerns. Broad market claims do not determine your individual needs. Seek clear information about the actual service and available choices.

For another dated sector snapshot, read the 2022–23 NDIS quarterly reports in context.

Questions readers ask

Does disability prevalence equal NDIS demand?

No. These are different populations and measures.

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